Com o regresso em força e a imposição da geopolítica, registaram-se alterações estratégicas significativas, com inevitáveis consequências no factor estratégico, e pesadas consequências nas decisões das instâncias políticas (vidé Trump nos EUA ou os novos alinhamentos na “Europa” ou a ascensão em potência da China ou…). O “2018 Military Strength Ranking” apresentou agora o seu “The complete Global Firepower list for 2018 puts the military powers of the world into full perspective”. A posição portuguesa, neste ranking de 136 Estados, está longe de ser invejável…
A posição portuguesa (63º lugar do ranking) está mesmo longe de se poder considerar digna e, segundo um ex-CEMGFA, é consequência do forte desinvestimento praticado pelos sucessivos governos e do uso da Defesa Nacional como “mera variável de ajustamento orçamental” de que resultou a destruição das FA como dispositivo credível e a desarticulação total dos aparelhos de segurança”… São más notícias para o ministro Gomes Cravinho ou… poderão ser boas se ele tiver pensamento estratégico e for um homem de Estado.
Christopher Woody assinala, no ‘Business Insider’, a grande mudança estratégica, registada em 2018, dos conflitos de pequena escala para conflitos de grande escala. E considera que “With its National Defense Strategy released earlier this year, the US detailed its shift from small-scale operations like counterinsurgency and toward a potential fight with a rival like Russia or China. Countries around the world have made similar moves, refocusing on large-scale conflict. Global Firepower’s 2018 Military Strength Ranking tries to fill that void by drawing on more than 55 factors to assign a Power Index score to 136 countries — adding Ireland, Montenegro, and Liberia to last year’s list.
Sobre a metodologia utilizada na elaboração do “2018 Military Strength Ranking”, explicam os seus autores:
The finalized Global Firepower ranking utilizes over 55 individual factors to determine a given nation’s PowerIndex (‘PwrIndx’) score. The unique, in-house formula allows for smaller, more technologically-advanced, nations to compete with larger, though lesser-developed, ones. Modifiers (in the form of bonuses and penalties) are applied to further refine the list. A perfect PwrIndex score is 0.0000 which is realistically unattainable in the scope of the GFP formula.
Some qualities to observe in regards to the finalized ranking:
- Ranking does not rely solely on total number of weapons available to any one country but rather focuses on weapon diversity.
- Nuclear stockpiles are NOT taken into account but recognized / suspected nuclear powers are given a bonus.
- First World, Second World, and Third World statuses are taken into account.
- Geographical factors, logistical flexibility, natural resources, and local industry are influencers.
- Total available manpower is a key consideration as it influences available personnel and industry.
- Land-locked nations are NOT penalized for lack of a standing navy; However, naval powers ARE penalized for lack of diversity in available assets.
- NATO allies receive a slight bonus due to the theoretical sharing of war-making resources.
- A nation’s financial stability / health is taken into account.
- Current political / military leadership is NOT taken into account.
For 2018 there are a total of 136 countries included in the GFP database. New to 2018 are Ireland, Montenegro, and Liberia.
Arrow graphics correspond to each nation’s placement against the previous year’s list. Green Arrows indicate an increase in rank whilst Red Arrows reflect varying degrees of decline. Gray ‘Double Arrows’ reflect virtually no change in ranking; this does not necessarily indicate no changes occurred across individual values but more so that changes were not great enough to affect year-over-year ranking. Increases / declines are based on many factors and can be related to equipment / manpower attrition, financial instability, population / resources fluxes, and the like.”
Ver ranking aqui: 2018 Military Strength Ranking
Exclusivo Tornado / IntelNomics
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